With the call from Zelensky, Xi Jinping ramps up his efforts to mediate peace, but does he have a strategy?

In Washington and some parts of Europe, people are cautiously welcoming the long-awaited phone talk between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday because it may open up further discussion about ending Russia's terrible war in Ukraine.

Additionally, it represents the most decisive action China has taken to date in assuming the mediatorial role that it has hinted at playing for months.

However, the hour-long discussion, which is said to be the first between the two presidents in the fourteen months since Russia invaded Ukraine, also offers few specific recommendations for how China may assist in bridging the terrible, war-torn gap between the two countries.

Its timing, which coincides with Beijing's intense focus on bolstering relationships with Europe in the face of deteriorating relations with the United States, implies that China is considering other factors in addition to peace, according to observers.

Since the start of the war, relations have deteriorated significantly as European leaders have watched in horror as Beijing has refused to denounce the invasion and has instead strengthened its connections with Moscow on the diplomatic and commercial fronts, notably by siding with Moscow in accusing NATO of fomenting the crisis.

China's top diplomat in Paris said in a televised interview that former Soviet states have no status under international law, which was interpreted as a possible nod to Putin's position that Ukraine should be a part of Russia. This week, Beijing's efforts to mend those relations suffered a serious setback.

According to Brain Hart, a fellow at the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, "it is difficult to separate the timing of the Xi-Zelensky call from those events."

It's possible that Xi timed the conversation to allay anxieties in Europe, but it's unclear how much the call will benefit Beijing. Although higher-ups in Beijing later retracted the ambassador's comments, the damage had already been done and Beijing's efforts to mend its deteriorating relations with much of Europe had failed.

What are the credits 

Zelensky, who had been interested in speaking with Xi for months, addressed hopes for China's role in promoting peace in his nightly address to Ukrainians. He described the call as a "opportunity to use China's political influence to restore the strength of the principles and rules on which peace should be based."

As for Xi, he promised that China "would not sit idly by" and announced plans to send a special envoy to advance communication "with all parties" toward peace talks, according to a Chinese readout of the call. This action is similar to what Beijing has done in other regional conflicts like Afghanistan and Syria.

But little information, other than the selection of Li Hui, a former Chinese ambassador to Russia, as the envoy, has been made public by Beijing, leaving it unclear as to what precisely China may or expects to accomplish.

Russia is steadfast in its refusal to cede territory it has obtained unlawfully, and Ukraine has vowed to fight until its legitimate boundaries have been restored.

No one believes that either Russia or Ukraine are prepared to sit down and negotiate at this moment, so the Chinese likewise have realistic expectations about what they can accomplish, according to Yun Sun, head of the China Program at the Washington, DC, think tank Stimson Center.

China's decision to contact Zelensky now, she continued, may be more of an effort to take advantage of French backing for its mediatory position in light of French President Emmanuel Macron's recent visit to China as well as to secure any benefits from Europe.

For China, the fact that the war isn't likely to end soon doesn't mean it shouldn't take advantage of the chance to boost its diplomatic clout and influence, as well as to deepen its goodwill toward Europe... Even while no mediation is certain to be successful, China receives tremendous credit for trying, she said.

With the Foreign Ministry announcing the call at a rare, invite-only special press event in Beijing on Wednesday evening, China has already shown that it is prepared to improve these optics.

neutral participant?

A different set of optics, however, including as Beijing's close ties to Moscow, have already instilled in the West a strong mistrust over China's prospective mediating role.

Despite a long-standing strategic alliance between their nations and Xi's claims of neutrality since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the two leaders have spoken five times, twice in person, without Xi picking up the phone to contact Zelensky.

Alongside Russian forces, China has also continued to conduct military drills; on a visit to Moscow earlier this month, the defense minister praised the "increasingly consolidated" level of trust between the two nations.

A cryptic "political settlement" to the conflict, announced by China on the anniversary of the invasion and presented to Zelensky by Xi on Wednesday, has received widespread criticism in the West and in Kyiv for favoring Russia over Ukraine. It demands a ceasefire but makes no mention of Moscow first removing its soldiers from Ukrainian territory.

This track record and Xi and Putin's tight personal ties, which were highlighted during the Chinese leader's three-day visit to Moscow last month, are likely to damage Xi's credibility in Zelensky's eyes, observers believe.

But this connection has also been the cause of several leaders' expressed optimism that Xi will use his power to persuade Russia to abide by international law, including Zelensky and Macron.

Analysts claim that if China were to play a mediating role, it might change its "political settlement" stance to one that Ukraine would find more palatable. Additionally, it might work to advance the cause by supporting other non-Western nations that have demanded peace talks, such as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio  da Silva, who visited Beijing earlier this month.

However, Beijing might also be cautious to avoid hitting certain buttons due to the essential importance of the China-Russia relationship, which could undermine the likelihood of effective mediation.

According to Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, "there is no indication that Xi is trying to get Putin or Russia to make concessions of any sort, and the Chinese readout (of the call) does not include anything concrete that can start a peace process."

"Given that the war is an existential one for Ukraine, it cannot find any foreign mediation as credible if the mediating party is clearly supportive of the stance of Russia, which started the invasion," he continued.